000 FONT14 KNHC 241456 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012 1500 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 4 13 19 36 TROP DEPRESSION 3 11 11 13 19 17 25 TROPICAL STORM 90 77 67 56 45 46 26 HURRICANE 7 10 20 28 24 19 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 9 17 23 18 15 10 HUR CAT 2 1 1 2 4 4 3 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 2 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 45KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) ORLANDO FL 34 4 2( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) PATRICK AFB 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MARCO ISLAND 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) FT MYERS FL 34 4 2( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 3(16) 1(17) 1(18) VENICE FL 34 7 4(11) 7(18) 3(21) 4(25) 1(26) 1(27) TAMPA FL 34 11 5(16) 9(25) 3(28) 4(32) 1(33) 1(34) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 23 6(29) 10(39) 3(42) 3(45) 1(46) 1(47) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 22 12(34) 11(45) 5(50) 4(54) 1(55) X(55) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 32 12(44) 10(54) 4(58) 3(61) 2(63) X(63) ST MARKS FL 50 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 64 6(70) 9(79) 3(82) 2(84) 1(85) X(85) APALACHICOLA 50 2 5( 7) 7(14) 3(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) APALACHICOLA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 9 7(16) 8(24) 2(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 850W 64 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 42 14(56) 13(69) 5(74) 4(78) 1(79) X(79) PANAMA CITY FL 50 1 4( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) MONTGOMERY AL 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 4(19) 3(22) X(22) PENSACOLA FL 34 5 10(15) 17(32) 13(45) 9(54) 3(57) 1(58) PENSACOLA FL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 2(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 3 5( 8) 11(19) 7(26) 6(32) 2(34) 1(35) GFMX 290N 870W 64 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) MOBILE AL 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 12(30) 13(43) 3(46) 2(48) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 12(25) 15(40) 5(45) 2(47) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) STENNIS SC 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 15(35) 7(42) 2(44) STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 1 2( 3) 9(12) 11(23) 17(40) 7(47) 2(49) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 4(16) X(16) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 3( 5) 10(15) 11(26) 14(40) 7(47) 2(49) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 3(16) 2(18) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 6(17) 1(18) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 8(15) 13(28) 10(38) 2(40) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 15(23) 8(31) 4(35) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 11(19) 9(28) 2(30) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 9(15) 11(26) 2(28) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 7( 8) 11(19) 4(23) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 5(15) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA