000 FONT14 KNHC 151438 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 1 8 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 47 53 71 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 53 46 19 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 49 39 17 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 6 2 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 55KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 53(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 69(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) BERMUDA 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) BERMUDA 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE