000 FONT14 KNHC 130856 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 0900 UTC TUE SEP 13 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 5 7 NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 9 8 11 17 18 NA TROPICAL STORM 91 78 69 63 60 58 NA HURRICANE 4 13 23 24 19 17 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 12 19 20 16 15 NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 4 2 2 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 1 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 50KT 50KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) X(13) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 35(53) X(53) X(53) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART