000 FONT14 KNHC 112037 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 2100 UTC SUN SEP 11 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 2 2 6 TROP DEPRESSION 3 11 14 12 7 8 16 TROPICAL STORM 90 77 70 62 50 49 54 HURRICANE 7 12 14 24 41 40 24 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 10 12 19 30 31 20 HUR CAT 2 1 1 2 3 8 7 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 3 3 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 65KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 32(40) 1(41) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONCE 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT THOMAS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN