000 FONT14 KNHC 100844 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 0900 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 TROP DEPRESSION 12 15 13 8 5 3 5 TROPICAL STORM 85 75 70 56 44 29 39 HURRICANE 2 8 15 34 50 67 55 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 13 27 35 40 34 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 10 18 14 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 4 7 5 HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 2 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 80KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) X(18) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 4(27) X(27) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JUAN 34 X 7( 7) 14(21) 3(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 25(26) 10(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 1 15(16) 6(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 11 56(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 21 25(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBUDA 34 69 14(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BARBUDA 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 66 5(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ANTIGUA 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 42 X(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) AVES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA