000 FONT14 KNHC 100249 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 0300 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 TROP DEPRESSION 12 15 13 8 5 3 3 TROPICAL STORM 86 75 71 56 44 29 26 HURRICANE 2 9 15 34 49 66 70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 8 12 26 35 40 36 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 10 18 19 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 4 7 13 HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 2 2 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) X(21) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 5(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 1(16) X(16) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X 5( 5) 27(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 23(24) 29(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) SAINT THOMAS 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 1 23(24) 14(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 7 62(69) 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 24 48(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 42 35(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) BARBUDA 50 1 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ANTIGUA 34 62 21(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) ANTIGUA 50 2 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 73 3(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) GUADELOUPE 50 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOMINICA 34 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MARTINIQUE 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN