000 FONT14 KNHC 092039 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 2100 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 2 2 2 TROP DEPRESSION 6 8 9 9 7 3 2 TROPICAL STORM 90 78 68 57 45 31 26 HURRICANE 5 14 23 33 47 64 70 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 12 19 26 33 39 36 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 5 10 17 20 HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 2 4 7 13 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X 2 2 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 7(25) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 16(26) 2(28) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 11(34) 1(35) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 5(19) 1(20) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) PONCE 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 11(26) 4(30) 1(31) X(31) PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JUAN 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 14(41) 5(46) X(46) X(46) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 13(13) 38(51) 8(59) 1(60) 1(61) X(61) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 12(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT CROIX 34 1 15(16) 28(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) SAINT CROIX 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 2 55(57) 19(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 8( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 7 62(69) 7(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BARBUDA 34 21 55(76) 5(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) BARBUDA 50 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BARBUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 31 52(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ANTIGUA 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ANTIGUA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 53 24(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) GUADELOUPE 50 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 1 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) DOMINICA 34 24 7(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) DOMINICA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAINT LUCIA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN