000 FONT14 KNHC 091446 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 1500 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 4 5 4 3 TROP DEPRESSION 6 15 19 17 16 8 9 TROPICAL STORM 90 75 68 62 58 49 46 HURRICANE 4 8 9 17 22 39 42 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 7 8 14 18 30 29 HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 3 4 7 10 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 3 2 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 45KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 70KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 14(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 7(32) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 12(32) 3(35) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) 1(20) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 5(28) 1(29) X(29) PONCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 18(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 4( 4) 29(33) 15(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X 6( 6) 28(34) 10(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 1 26(27) 25(52) 4(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 2 45(47) 16(63) 1(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBUDA 34 4 44(48) 9(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) BARBUDA 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ANTIGUA 34 7 56(63) 7(70) 1(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) ANTIGUA 50 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANTIGUA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 20 52(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) GUADELOUPE 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GUADELOUPE 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) AVES 34 1 11(12) 7(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) AVES 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 20 24(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) DOMINICA 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 16 8(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) SAINT LUCIA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BROWN