000 FONT14 KNHC 090256 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011 0300 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 4 5 5 6 6 6 TROP DEPRESSION 33 38 26 20 19 14 13 TROPICAL STORM 64 55 63 61 58 56 54 HURRICANE 1 3 6 14 17 24 28 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 2 5 11 15 19 23 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 2 3 4 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 13(23) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 13(31) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 6(32) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 17(31) 2(33) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) 1(21) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PONCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) 1(32) X(32) PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 16(40) 1(41) X(41) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 8(44) X(44) X(44) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 21(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) 16(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 X 3( 3) 24(27) 7(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANTIGUA 34 X 4( 4) 33(37) 7(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X 12(12) 36(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 9(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) AVES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X 20(20) 22(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) DOMINICA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 1 19(20) 10(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MARTINIQUE 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT VINCENT 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN