000 FONT14 KNHC 282035 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 2100 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 9 15 16 17 19 TROP DEPRESSION 10 35 33 30 25 24 26 TROPICAL STORM 88 59 54 50 51 51 46 HURRICANE 2 2 4 5 8 8 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 2 3 5 7 7 8 HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 40KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MONCTON NB 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ST JOHN NB 34 14 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) EASTPORT ME 34 22 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BAR HARBOR ME 34 49 X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) BAR HARBOR ME 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) AUGUSTA ME 50 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) PORTLAND ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORTLAND ME 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) CONCORD NH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CONCORD NH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BOSTON MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BOSTON MA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HARTFORD CT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HARTFORD CT 50 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MONTAUK POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONTAUK POINT 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW YORK CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEWARK NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TRENTON NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH