000 FONT14 KNHC 280839 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 0900 UTC SUN AUG 28 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 5 11 18 19 26 TROP DEPRESSION 1 7 22 26 27 26 29 TROPICAL STORM 77 79 64 48 48 48 41 HURRICANE 22 13 9 15 6 7 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 20 13 8 13 6 6 4 HUR CAT 2 2 1 1 2 X 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 55KT 45KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MONCTON NB 34 X 12(12) 12(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ST JOHN NB 34 X 23(23) 7(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) EASTPORT ME 34 1 34(35) 5(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) EASTPORT ME 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 8 48(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 18 61(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) AUGUSTA ME 50 X 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) AUGUSTA ME 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PORTLAND ME 34 38 49(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PORTLAND ME 50 2 48(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) PORTLAND ME 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CONCORD NH 34 67 27(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CONCORD NH 50 20 45(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CONCORD NH 64 4 10(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BOSTON MA 34 75 15(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BOSTON MA 50 30 28(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) BOSTON MA 64 6 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) HYANNIS MA 34 66 9(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) HYANNIS MA 50 11 7(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) HYANNIS MA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 62 6(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NANTUCKET MA 50 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 84 7(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) PROVIDENCE RI 50 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) PROVIDENCE RI 64 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HARTFORD CT 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) HARTFORD CT 50 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HARTFORD CT 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) MONTAUK POINT 34 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MONTAUK POINT 50 80 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) MONTAUK POINT 64 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW YORK CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW YORK CITY 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) NEW YORK CITY 64 19 X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) NEWARK NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEWARK NJ 50 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) NEWARK NJ 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TRENTON NJ 50 40 X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) TRENTON NJ 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ATLANTIC CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTIC CITY 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTIC CITY 64 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BALTIMORE MD 34 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) DOVER DE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOVER DE 50 35 X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WASHINGTON DC 34 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEAN CITY MD 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) RICHMOND VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN