000 FONT14 KNHC 270258 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 0300 UTC SAT AUG 27 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 5 7 17 30 37 TROP DEPRESSION X 5 17 9 26 26 28 TROPICAL STORM 6 39 48 60 44 40 33 HURRICANE 94 56 30 25 14 4 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 72 45 25 20 11 4 2 HUR CAT 2 18 8 3 3 2 X X HUR CAT 3 3 2 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 75KT 70KT 60KT 45KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 14(30) X(30) X(30) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 33(36) X(36) X(36) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 30(40) X(40) X(40) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 28(47) X(47) X(47) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 37(37) 19(56) X(56) X(56) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) X(18) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 49(50) 13(63) X(63) X(63) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) 6(67) X(67) X(67) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 59(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 16(16) 52(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 19(19) 38(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 20(20) 31(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 26(26) 43(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HARTFORD CT 34 X 1( 1) 32(33) 36(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 29(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 10(10) 47(57) 10(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) 22(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X 9( 9) 42(51) 10(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TRENTON NJ 34 X 13(13) 41(54) 4(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 31(31) 43(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 20(21) 14(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) DOVER DE 34 2 36(38) 30(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) DOVER DE 50 X 3( 3) 18(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 3 26(29) 14(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 3 21(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) OCEAN CITY MD 34 8 58(66) 20(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 17(17) 33(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RICHMOND VA 34 17 34(51) 3(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) RICHMOND VA 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 46 43(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NORFOLK NAS 50 1 45(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) NORFOLK NAS 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 51 41(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NORFOLK VA 50 1 53(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) NORFOLK VA 64 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GREENSBORO NC 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 29 8(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HATTERAS 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 69 25(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) CAPE HATTERAS 64 12 53(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) CHARLOTTE NC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 92 3(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) MOREHEAD CITY 64 47 4(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) WILMINGTON NC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WILMINGTON NC 50 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 8 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART