000 FONT14 KNHC 262048 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IRENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 2100 UTC FRI AUG 26 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 7 7 18 29 36 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 18 9 25 29 30 TROPICAL STORM 5 24 45 59 45 39 32 HURRICANE 95 75 31 25 13 4 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 72 57 25 21 10 3 2 HUR CAT 2 19 14 4 4 2 X X HUR CAT 3 3 4 2 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 1 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 75KT 70KT 60KT 45KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) X(27) X(27) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) X(37) X(37) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 37(46) X(46) X(46) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 39(53) X(53) X(53) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 33(57) X(57) X(57) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) X(18) X(18) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 38(38) 22(60) X(60) X(60) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) X(21) CONCORD NH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 44(46) 15(61) X(61) X(61) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 9(23) X(23) X(23) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 38(42) 9(51) X(51) X(51) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) X(15) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 34(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 7(63) X(63) X(63) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 57(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 12(12) 52(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 44(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X 1( 1) 22(23) 40(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X 3( 3) 25(28) 29(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 11(11) 37(48) 20(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) 15(15) 15(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 13(13) 18(31) 6(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOVER DE 34 X 16(16) 36(52) 10(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 16(16) 24(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 16(16) 18(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 1 34(35) 43(78) 3(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X 2( 2) 36(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) RICHMOND VA 34 7 42(49) 11(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) RICHMOND VA 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 19 59(78) 13(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 26(26) 28(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) NORFOLK NAS 64 X 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK VA 34 23 59(82) 11(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) NORFOLK VA 50 X 32(32) 27(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) NORFOLK VA 64 X 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GREENSBORO NC 34 7 10(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) RALEIGH NC 34 27 25(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) RALEIGH NC 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 76 22(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE HATTERAS 50 8 76(84) 3(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X 46(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) CHARLOTTE NC 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOREHEAD CITY 34 93 7(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 50 58 38(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MOREHEAD CITY 64 8 53(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) WILMINGTON NC 34 94 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) WILMINGTON NC 50 51 14(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) WILMINGTON NC 64 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBIA SC 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MYRTLE BEACH 34 84 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) MYRTLE BEACH 50 11 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MYRTLE BEACH 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 35 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN