000 FONT14 KNHC 290232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042011 0300 UTC FRI JUL 29 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 16 34 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 3 10 46 40 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 88 72 35 26 NA NA NA HURRICANE 8 17 3 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 8 15 3 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 1 2 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 55KT 30KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HOUSTON TX 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AUSTIN TX 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FREEPORT TX 34 2 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 950W 34 6 28(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 24(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 24(25) 14(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 7 58(65) 5(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X 15(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 21(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 6 18(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LA PESCO MX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA