000 FONT14 KNHC 241445 PWSAT4 HURRICANE RICHARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1500 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 16 34 43 43 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 8 30 41 32 30 NA TROPICAL STORM 12 78 32 24 23 25 NA HURRICANE 88 14 23 1 2 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 62 13 18 1 2 2 NA HUR CAT 2 21 1 3 X X X NA HUR CAT 3 5 X 1 X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85KT 55KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 2 4( 6) 21(27) 4(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BELIZE 50 80 8(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BELIZE 64 58 4(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 5 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANAJA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER PASCH