000 FONT14 KNHC 240231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 0300 UTC SUN OCT 24 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 4 23 40 48 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 24 40 32 28 NA TROPICAL STORM 59 47 60 31 26 23 NA HURRICANE 41 50 12 6 3 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 38 42 10 4 3 2 NA HUR CAT 2 3 6 2 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 X 1 X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 70KT 45KT 30KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 19(26) 2(28) X(28) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) COZUMEL MX 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) BELIZE 34 4 60(64) 15(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BELIZE 50 X 14(14) 15(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BELIZE 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 3 14(17) 8(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 96 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GUANAJA 50 59 12(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) GUANAJA 64 16 7(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN