000 FONT14 KNHC 232034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 2100 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 16 33 46 NA TROP DEPRESSION 2 4 12 37 35 29 NA TROPICAL STORM 79 57 66 40 29 23 NA HURRICANE 19 38 20 7 4 2 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 19 33 17 5 3 2 NA HUR CAT 2 X 4 3 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X 1 X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 60KT 65KT 50KT 35KT 30KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 19(23) 2(25) X(25) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MERIDA MX 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BELIZE 34 2 32(34) 31(65) 3(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) BELIZE 50 X 4( 4) 16(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) BELIZE 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 8( 9) 17(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUANAJA 34 71 23(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GUANAJA 50 25 38(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) GUANAJA 64 4 13(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE