000 FONT14 KNHC 230845 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 0900 UTC SAT OCT 23 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 2 4 6 26 41 49 TROP DEPRESSION 16 16 15 15 25 29 24 TROPICAL STORM 81 72 57 59 35 28 25 HURRICANE 3 10 24 20 14 3 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 9 20 16 11 3 2 HUR CAT 2 X 1 3 3 2 X X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 50KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 13(17) 5(22) 1(23) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 1(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) BELIZE 34 X 5( 5) 39(44) 15(59) 3(62) 1(63) X(63) BELIZE 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 1(21) 1(22) X(22) BELIZE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X 2( 2) 16(18) 11(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GUANAJA 34 9 54(63) 10(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) GUANAJA 50 X 17(17) 12(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GUANAJA 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN