000 FONT14 KNHC 212034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 2100 UTC THU OCT 21 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICHARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 1 1 4 14 34 TROP DEPRESSION 7 9 5 7 6 13 30 TROPICAL STORM 89 78 60 48 32 34 33 HURRICANE 5 13 35 44 58 39 4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 11 29 32 34 23 3 HUR CAT 2 X 1 4 9 14 9 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 3 8 5 X HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 1 X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 60KT 65KT 80KT 40KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) FRONTERA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 11(27) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 22(39) 6(45) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 17(32) 4(36) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 3(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 35(40) 8(48) 3(51) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 5(24) 1(25) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 6(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 4(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 2(19) 1(20) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE