000 FONT14 KNHC 210232 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 0300 UTC THU OCT 21 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 3 8 8 8 7 13 21 TROP DEPRESSION 61 49 34 26 19 19 17 TROPICAL STORM 35 41 53 56 53 50 42 HURRICANE 1 2 5 11 20 19 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 1 4 9 15 14 15 HUR CAT 2 1 X 1 2 3 3 3 HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 50KT 55KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 6(23) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 5(24) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 17(31) 2(33) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN