000 FONT14 KNHC 071440 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 1500 UTC SAT AUG 07 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 2 3 6 8 NA TROP DEPRESSION 34 22 17 13 13 19 NA TROPICAL STORM 64 71 69 63 57 54 NA HURRICANE X 5 12 22 24 18 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 5 11 17 18 15 NA HUR CAT 2 X X 1 4 4 3 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 2 1 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 45KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 22(54) X(54) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BERMUDA 34 9 55(64) 5(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) BERMUDA 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER AVILA