000 FONT14 KNHC 030831 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2010 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 1 2 3 5 5 8 TROP DEPRESSION 12 13 11 13 16 16 20 TROPICAL STORM 85 76 69 62 55 53 51 HURRICANE 2 9 18 22 25 25 22 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 8 15 18 19 20 18 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 4 4 3 HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH