000 FONT14 KNHC 022038 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 2100 UTC MON AUG 02 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 2 3 1 3 5 7 TROP DEPRESSION 33 21 16 10 12 17 20 TROPICAL STORM 64 72 69 57 53 53 51 HURRICANE 2 6 12 32 32 25 22 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 25 23 19 18 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 5 6 4 3 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 2 3 2 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 55KT 55KT 50KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) 1(11) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) 1(12) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART