000 FONT14 KNHC 161448 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042009 1500 UTC SUN AUG 16 2009 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 5 9 41 NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 42 43 46 NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 48 47 13 NA NA NA NA HURRICANE 4 2 1 NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 2 1 NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 35KT 20KT NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 20 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST MARKS FL 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) APALACHICOLA 34 44 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) APALACHICOLA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 290N 850W 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 38 6(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) PANAMA CITY FL 50 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 4 20(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 17 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) PENSACOLA FL 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 9 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 34 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GULFPORT MS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS