000 FONT14 KNHC 131441 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1500 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 20 31 44 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 14 77 68 47 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 86 3 X 10 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 30KT 30KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 86 1(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) SHREVEPORT LA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUSTON TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FREEPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 950W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART