000 FONT14 KNHC 121453 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 9 30 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X X 39 58 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM X 15 50 13 NA NA NA HURRICANE 99 84 2 X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 56 2 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 56 20 1 X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 29 8 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 2 1 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 80KT 40KT 30KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GULFPORT MS 34 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURAS LA 34 29 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 34 4(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 64 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 46 7(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) BATON ROUGE LA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 73 4(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) NEW IBERIA LA 50 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 64 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 10 32(42) 10(52) 2(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 79 16(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 47 34(81) 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 4 44(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GALVESTON TX 34 85 13(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GALVESTON TX 50 73 23(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) GALVESTON TX 64 15 61(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) HOUSTON TX 34 66 29(95) 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) HOUSTON TX 50 27 61(88) 2(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) HOUSTON TX 64 2 48(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) AUSTIN TX 34 8 32(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) AUSTIN TX 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) AUSTIN TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 6 15(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 79 17(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) FREEPORT TX 50 56 32(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FREEPORT TX 64 8 46(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) GFMX 280N 950W 34 90 5(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 950W 50 82 5(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) GFMX 280N 950W 64 28 15(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PORT O CONNOR 34 51 20(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) PORT O CONNOR 50 12 16(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PORT O CONNOR 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 14 10(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 43 5(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) GFMX 270N 960W 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER AVILA