000 FONT14 KNHC 082050 PWSAT4 HURRICANE IKE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 2100 UTC MON SEP 08 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 2 11 18 TROP DEPRESSION 1 X 3 2 2 9 10 TROPICAL STORM 22 15 32 19 16 17 26 HURRICANE 76 84 65 79 79 63 46 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 59 59 46 40 28 19 19 HUR CAT 2 14 19 14 23 22 16 11 HUR CAT 3 2 5 4 13 21 18 10 HUR CAT 4 X 1 1 3 7 8 5 HUR CAT 5 X X X 1 1 1 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 80KT 75KT 85KT 95KT 100KT 95KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 3 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) MARATHON FL 34 7 19(26) 5(31) 3(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) MARATHON FL 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 9 32(41) 7(48) 2(50) 4(54) X(54) 1(55) KEY WEST FL 50 X 7( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 2 9(11) 7(18) 5(23) 4(27) 1(28) X(28) MARCO ISLAND 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 5(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X 4( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 5(24) 1(25) 1(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 1(16) 1(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 2(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 1(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 3(17) 1(18) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 4(24) 1(25) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) 1(18) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 2(21) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 19(27) 8(35) 2(37) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 2(13) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 8(20) 3(23) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 11(25) 4(29) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 16(37) 5(42) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 3(17) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 29(38) 13(51) 3(54) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) 3(27) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) 1(14) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 16(31) 7(38) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 21(47) 7(54) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 5(26) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 17(26) 7(33) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 8(36) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 25(38) 9(47) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 7(24) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 12(33) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 12(35) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 7(15) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 13(30) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 13(34) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 12(39) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 12(29) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 11(31) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 3(14) 2(16) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 5(18) 1(19) 1(20) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANDROS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 29(32) 19(51) 5(56) 3(59) 1(60) X(60) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) 2(21) X(21) 1(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 55 36(91) 2(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) HAVANA 50 4 53(57) 7(64) 1(65) 1(66) X(66) X(66) HAVANA 64 1 21(22) 4(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLE OF PINES 34 62 25(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ISLE OF PINES 50 8 40(48) 3(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) ISLE OF PINES 64 3 24(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 1(29) CIENFUEGOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CIENFUEGOS 50 80 3(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) CIENFUEGOS 64 21 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND CAYMAN 34 10 4(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) 1(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER RHOME/AVILA