000 FONT14 KNHC 222102 PWSAT4 HURRICANE DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008 2100 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 7 34 X X X TROP DEPRESSION X X 29 37 X X X TROPICAL STORM 29 26 53 24 X X X HURRICANE 71 74 11 5 X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 65 55 9 4 X X X HUR CAT 2 5 15 2 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 4 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 80KT 40KT 25KT 0KT 0KT 0KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 930W 34 7 4(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GALVESTON TX 34 5 8(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HOUSTON TX 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) AUSTIN TX 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 3 11(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) FREEPORT TX 34 7 10(17) 2(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 950W 34 16 14(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PORT O CONNOR 34 11 24(35) 5(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PORT O CONNOR 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 16 39(55) 7(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 270N 960W 34 61 15(76) 3(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) GFMX 270N 960W 50 3 11(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 77 16(93) 2(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) BROWNSVILLE TX 50 11 46(57) 5(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) BROWNSVILLE TX 64 3 26(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GFMX 250N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 250N 960W 50 84 3(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 250N 960W 64 31 5(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) LA PESCO MX 34 13 15(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) LA PESCO MX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPICO MX 34 4 6(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) TUXPAN MX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER AVILA