000 FONT14 KNHC 300230 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 0300 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 165N 316W 34 58 8(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 12 165N 316W 50 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 165N 316W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 174N 337W 34 3 26(29) 5(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) 24 174N 337W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 174N 337W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36 184N 358W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 36 184N 358W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 184N 358W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 195N 380W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) 48 195N 380W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 195N 380W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 72 220N 420W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 72 220N 420W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 220N 420W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 245N 445W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 96 245N 445W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 245N 445W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 35 35 30 25 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE