000 FONT14 KNHC 292031 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 2100 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 163N 309W 34 47 7(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) 12 163N 309W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 163N 309W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 170N 330W 34 3 29(32) 8(40) X(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41) 24 170N 330W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 170N 330W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 180N 350W 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) 36 180N 350W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 180N 350W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 190N 370W 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) 48 190N 370W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 48 190N 370W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 215N 410W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) X(12) 72 215N 410W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 215N 410W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 240N 440W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 96 240N 440W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 240N 440W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 260N 450W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 120 260N 450W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 260N 450W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 30 25 20 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA