000 FONT14 KNHC 291437 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 156N 294W 34 52 6(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 12 156N 294W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 12 156N 294W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 165N 310W 34 6 26(32) 7(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) 24 165N 310W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 165N 310W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 176N 334W 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 5(28) 1(29) 1(30) X(30) 36 176N 334W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 176N 334W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 185N 355W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 4(19) 1(20) X(20) 48 185N 355W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 185N 355W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 200N 391W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 72 200N 391W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 72 200N 391W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 96 215N 420W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 96 215N 420W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 96 215N 420W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 235N 450W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 120 235N 450W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 235N 450W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 35 35 30 25 20 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA