000 FONT14 KNHC 290841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007 0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT... - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 144N 287W 34 47 13(60) X(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) 12 144N 287W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 12 144N 287W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 148N 305W 34 4 39(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 1(52) 24 148N 305W 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 24 148N 305W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 155N 327W 34 X 7( 7) 26(33) 5(38) 1(39) 1(40) X(40) 36 155N 327W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 155N 327W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 162N 348W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 5(25) X(25) 1(26) 48 162N 348W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 162N 348W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 72 175N 385W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) 72 175N 385W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 175N 385W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 190N 420W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) 96 190N 420W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 96 190N 420W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 210N 450W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 120 210N 450W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 210N 450W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 40 35 30 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB