000 FONT14 KNHC 140240 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007 0300 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 120N 374W 34 16 9(25) X(25) X(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) 12 120N 374W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 12 120N 374W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24 120N 404W 34 X 23(23) 10(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 24 120N 404W 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 24 120N 404W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 122N 434W 34 X 1( 1) 27(28) 9(37) 1(38) 1(39) X(39) 36 122N 434W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 36 122N 434W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 48 126N 464W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 23(26) 9(35) 1(36) 1(37) 48 126N 464W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) 48 126N 464W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 138N 520W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 11(33) 2(35) 72 138N 520W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 1(14) 72 138N 520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 96 160N 575W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 10(32) 96 160N 575W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 6(15) 96 160N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 120 185N 625W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 120 185N 625W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 120 185N 625W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 60 75 90 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BROWN