453 FONT13 KNHC 021448 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032022 1500 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ELIZABETH CTY 34 2 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) RALEIGH NC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 3 27(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 26 11(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW RIVER NC 34 19 24(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) NEW RIVER NC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 26 19(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 52 4(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) SURF CITY NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 54 2(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) WILMINGTON NC 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 62 1(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) BALD HEAD ISL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MYRTLE BEACH 34 33 X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) GEORGETOWN SC 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI