000 FONT13 KNHC 291439 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 6 22 43 58 68 TROP DEPRESSION X 4 29 42 38 25 15 TROPICAL STORM 8 74 62 36 19 12 6 HURRICANE 92 22 3 1 1 5 11 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 20 3 1 1 3 5 HUR CAT 2 17 2 X X X 1 4 HUR CAT 3 3 X X X X 1 3 HUR CAT 4 1 X X X X X 1 HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 80KT 60KT 45KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORTLAND ME 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) PORTLAND ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CONCORD NH 34 30 5(35) X(35) X(35) 2(37) 3(40) 1(41) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BOSTON MA 34 50 2(52) X(52) 1(53) X(53) 2(55) 1(56) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 1(66) 1(67) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 1(82) X(82) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 69 X(69) 1(70) X(70) 1(71) X(71) 1(72) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 72 1(73) 1(74) X(74) X(74) 1(75) X(75) HARTFORD CT 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 81 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) 1(83) MONTAUK POINT 50 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) NEW YORK CITY 34 89 3(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NEW YORK CITY 50 55 3(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) NEWARK NJ 34 86 6(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) NEWARK NJ 50 48 6(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) NEWARK NJ 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) TRENTON NJ 34 88 9(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) TRENTON NJ 50 68 15(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) TRENTON NJ 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ATLANTIC CITY 50 96 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) ATLANTIC CITY 64 13 15(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BALTIMORE MD 34 87 13(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BALTIMORE MD 50 36 52(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BALTIMORE MD 64 X 28(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) DOVER DE 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DOVER DE 50 92 6(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) DOVER DE 64 13 41(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 92 8(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 47 42(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X 31(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WASHINGTON DC 34 87 12(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WASHINGTON DC 50 16 58(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) WASHINGTON DC 64 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) OCEAN CITY MD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEAN CITY MD 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) OCEAN CITY MD 64 61 10(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) RICHMOND VA 34 83 11(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) RICHMOND VA 50 2 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK NAS 50 10 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NORFOLK VA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NORFOLK VA 50 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) WALLOPS CDA 50 91 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) WALLOPS CDA 64 34 9(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 9(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) RALEIGH NC 34 13 17(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) CAPE HATTERAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOREHEAD CITY 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) $$ FORECASTER STEWART