000 FONT13 KNHC 260842 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 0900 UTC FRI OCT 26 2012 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 2 14 22 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 4 7 7 24 33 TROPICAL STORM 29 57 56 54 49 43 40 HURRICANE 71 42 40 38 41 19 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 65 36 33 30 30 15 4 HUR CAT 2 5 4 4 6 8 3 1 HUR CAT 3 1 1 2 2 3 1 X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 65KT 65KT 65KT 70KT 70KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) CONCORD NH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BOSTON MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 5(22) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 8(32) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 10(39) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 10(37) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) NEWARK NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 9(38) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) TRENTON NJ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 7(45) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 10(34) BALTIMORE MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) BALTIMORE MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) 8(44) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) DOVER DE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 8(36) ANNAPOLIS MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) ANNAPOLIS MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 9(32) WASHINGTON DC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) WASHINGTON DC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 31(44) 5(49) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 6(30) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) RICHMOND VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 22(36) 3(39) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 22(37) 3(40) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 30(43) 5(48) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 4(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) 9(41) 1(42) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 1(14) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 17(23) 6(29) 1(30) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 8(14) 4(18) 2(20) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 2(13) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) MAYPORT NS 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DAYTONA BEACH 34 6 5(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ORLANDO FL 34 6 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 12 6(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PATRICK AFB 34 12 6(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 16 7(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) W PALM BEACH 34 13 4(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VENICE FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANDROS 34 6 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GREAT EXUMA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN