000 FONT13 KNHC 251445 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 1500 UTC THU OCT 25 2012 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 3 6 25 TROP DEPRESSION X X 2 5 10 12 27 TROPICAL STORM 1 17 36 50 56 55 38 HURRICANE 99 83 63 44 32 27 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 29 59 47 33 25 22 9 HUR CAT 2 56 18 11 8 5 4 1 HUR CAT 3 13 5 4 3 2 1 X HUR CAT 4 1 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 90KT 80KT 75KT 70KT 65KT 65KT 60KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) NEW YORK CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW YORK CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) NEWARK NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) TRENTON NJ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) DOVER DE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 5(21) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) 4(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 3(21) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) W PALM BEACH 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARATHON FL 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 13(14) 19(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 5 40(45) 3(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 6 7(13) 4(17) 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) ANDROS 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GREAT EXUMA 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GREAT EXUMA 64 71 X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) SAN SALVADOR 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAN SALVADOR 50 30 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) SAN SALVADOR 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN