000 FONT13 KNHC 272035 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 2100 UTC THU OCT 27 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 13 22 32 38 43 TROP DEPRESSION 4 13 42 43 38 36 30 TROPICAL STORM 80 65 43 33 28 23 25 HURRICANE 16 22 3 3 2 2 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 15 19 3 3 2 2 1 HUR CAT 2 1 2 X X X X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 X X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 25KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MERIDA MX 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 95 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) COZUMEL MX 50 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BELIZE 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GUANAJA 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 8( 9) 4(13) 4(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN