000 FONT13 KNHC 261735 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RINA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1730 UTC WED OCT 26 2011 AT 1730Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 4 8 17 33 TROP DEPRESSION X 4 3 11 21 30 33 TROPICAL STORM 31 49 50 55 56 47 32 HURRICANE 69 47 46 30 15 7 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 64 39 38 24 12 5 2 HUR CAT 2 5 6 6 4 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 2 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 65KT 65KT 55KT 45KT 35KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 2(18) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 1(21) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) COZUMEL MX 34 7 54(61) 24(85) 1(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) COZUMEL MX 50 1 18(19) 28(47) 2(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BELIZE 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 4 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 1(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 4( 6) 18(24) 15(39) 17(56) 2(58) X(58) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 15(20) 7(27) 1(28) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 12(22) 6(28) X(28) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 1(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN