000 FONT13 KNHC 251433 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 1500 UTC TUE OCT 25 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS ...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 3 9 16 17 TROP DEPRESSION X X X 7 8 21 21 TROPICAL STORM X 1 9 24 43 52 47 HURRICANE 99 99 90 67 40 12 14 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 6 11 26 29 29 10 12 HUR CAT 2 48 34 34 20 8 2 2 HUR CAT 3 42 45 25 14 3 X X HUR CAT 4 4 9 5 3 X X X HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 100KT 105KT 100KT 100KT 80KT 60KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 5(21) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 9(19) 2(21) 1(22) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 1 7( 8) 48(56) 23(79) 7(86) X(86) X(86) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) 26(41) 9(50) 1(51) X(51) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) BELIZE 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 4(18) 4(22) 1(23) 1(24) BELIZE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANAJA 34 9 15(24) 4(28) 2(30) 2(32) 2(34) 1(35) GUANAJA 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 17(27) 29(56) 5(61) 2(63) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15(20) 5(25) X(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 13(27) 5(32) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 11(19) 12(31) 3(34) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 6(16) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 3(17) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN