000 FONT13 KNHC 240832 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 0900 UTC MON OCT 24 2011 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 2 3 8 17 23 TROP DEPRESSION 16 16 14 13 17 18 12 TROPICAL STORM 81 75 69 62 51 43 43 HURRICANE 2 8 14 23 23 22 21 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 12 18 19 18 16 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 3 3 4 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 18(23) 11(34) 5(39) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BELIZE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 9(29) 3(32) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 14(25) 11(36) 5(41) 2(43) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 8(27) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10) 6(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) $$ FORECASTER PASCH