000 FONT13 KNHC 240238 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM RINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182011 0300 UTC MON OCT 24 2011 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 2 2 3 9 19 22 TROP DEPRESSION 16 16 14 13 17 17 7 TROPICAL STORM 81 75 69 62 52 44 44 HURRICANE 2 7 14 23 22 20 27 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 7 12 18 18 17 22 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 3 2 4 HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 1 HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 60KT 65KT 65KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 9(28) 8(36) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BELIZE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 14(19) 10(29) 4(33) BELIZE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) BELIZE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 12(22) 12(34) 7(41) 2(43) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) 10(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 7(16) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 5(13) $$ FORECASTER STEWART