000 FONT13 KNHC 041451 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 1500 UTC SUN SEP 04 2011 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 11 19 27 53 66 NA TROP DEPRESSION 41 50 43 38 32 24 NA TROPICAL STORM 58 38 36 33 14 10 NA HURRICANE X 1 2 2 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 2 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 20KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) X(11) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 4(23) 1(24) X(24) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 5 6(11) 11(22) 4(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 4( 7) 4(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MOBILE AL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GULFPORT MS 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS SC 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 16 5(21) 2(23) 1(24) X(24) 1(25) X(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 29 12(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GFMX 280N 930W 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART