000 FONT13 KNHC 022051 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011 2100 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 5 5 24 29 58 TROP DEPRESSION 7 13 21 11 31 26 24 TROPICAL STORM 89 75 59 62 39 41 15 HURRICANE 4 10 15 22 6 5 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 3 9 13 18 6 4 3 HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 X 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 50KT 40KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 2(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 2(17) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 9(21) 1(22) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 2(12) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 2(19) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 3( 6) 5(11) 8(19) 9(28) 7(35) 2(37) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 5 3( 8) 5(13) 6(19) 9(28) 8(36) 1(37) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOBILE AL 34 6 7(13) 7(20) 14(34) 10(44) 5(49) 1(50) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 15 13(28) 10(38) 16(54) 7(61) 2(63) 1(64) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) STENNIS SC 34 22 16(38) 13(51) 12(63) 6(69) 1(70) 1(71) STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20) STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 55 13(68) 6(74) 4(78) 2(80) 1(81) X(81) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 1(21) X(21) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 12(23) 8(31) 5(36) 1(37) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 40 20(60) 12(72) 6(78) 3(81) 1(82) X(82) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 11(18) 6(24) 1(25) X(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 13 14(27) 5(32) 2(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) GFMX 280N 910W 64 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 34 23 23(46) 15(61) 9(70) 5(75) 1(76) X(76) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 10(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 28 24(52) 13(65) 7(72) 4(76) X(76) X(76) NEW IBERIA LA 50 1 4( 5) 7(12) 7(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 27 18(45) 7(52) 3(55) 2(57) X(57) X(57) GFMX 280N 930W 50 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 7(10) 8(18) 6(24) 4(28) X(28) 1(29) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 2 4( 6) 5(11) 5(16) 2(18) X(18) 1(19) HOUSTON TX 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) FREEPORT TX 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) PORT O CONNOR 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER STEWART