000 FONT13 KNHC 192043 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082011 2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2011 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 3 7 19 34 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 9 17 32 35 24 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 88 67 56 39 33 NA NA HURRICANE 2 13 5 8 9 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 11 4 7 7 NA NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X 1 1 NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 55KT 40KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 15(19) 13(32) X(32) X(32) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BELIZE 34 5 44(49) 8(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) BELIZE 50 X 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BELIZE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 1 11(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUANAJA 34 49 9(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) GUANAJA 50 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN