000 FONT13 KNHC 122043 PWSAT3 HURRICANE PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 2100 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X X 1 7 27 34 TROP DEPRESSION X X 2 4 14 33 32 TROPICAL STORM X 10 36 43 49 36 31 HURRICANE 99 89 62 53 30 5 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 11 53 46 36 22 4 3 HUR CAT 2 60 27 11 12 4 1 X HUR CAT 3 27 8 3 4 2 X X HUR CAT 4 2 1 1 1 1 X X HUR CAT 5 1 1 X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 85KT 75KT 65KT 45KT 35KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) 1(13) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 1(25) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 13(24) 5(29) 1(30) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 71 9(80) 2(82) 1(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) COZUMEL MX 50 15 12(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) COZUMEL MX 64 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BELIZE 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GUANAJA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 10(19) 1(20) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 57(60) 25(85) 7(92) 1(93) 1(94) X(94) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 17(17) 36(53) 8(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 6( 6) 22(28) 5(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 31(40) 17(57) 3(60) 1(61) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 3( 4) 11(15) 36(51) 13(64) 2(66) X(66) ISLE OF PINES 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 16(18) 11(29) 2(31) X(31) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 27(40) 7(47) 1(48) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14) X(14) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 1(26) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 12(21) 3(24) 1(25) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GONAIVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA