000 FONT13 KNHC 121738 PWSAT3 HURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010 1745 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010 AT 1745Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 6 11 22 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 2 1 12 20 29 TROPICAL STORM 1 6 11 26 50 50 40 HURRICANE 99 93 86 71 33 19 10 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 11 29 31 41 24 15 8 HUR CAT 2 59 41 33 18 6 3 1 HUR CAT 3 27 19 18 9 3 1 1 HUR CAT 4 2 3 3 2 1 X X HUR CAT 5 1 1 1 X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95KT 95KT 95KT 85KT 70KT 60KT 50KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 3(16) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MERIDA MX 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 2(19) COZUMEL MX 34 74 21(95) 1(96) 1(97) 2(99) X(99) X(99) COZUMEL MX 50 13 46(59) 4(63) 3(66) 4(70) 1(71) X(71) COZUMEL MX 64 10 42(52) 3(55) 2(57) 3(60) X(60) X(60) BELIZE 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GUANAJA 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 2(12) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 28(30) 26(56) 16(72) 9(81) 1(82) 1(83) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) 13(16) 17(33) 9(42) 3(45) 1(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 8(26) 1(27) X(27) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 7(25) 3(28) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 7(13) 12(25) 7(32) 3(35) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 2(13) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 5(12) 3(15) $$ FORECASTER AVILA