000 FONT13 KNHC 162044 PWSAT3 HURRICANE KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 2100 UTC THU SEP 16 2010 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 26 40 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 8 41 19 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 12 29 65 26 16 NA NA HURRICANE 88 67 24 7 25 NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 76 39 17 4 8 NA NA HUR CAT 2 11 22 5 2 9 NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 5 2 1 7 NA NA HUR CAT 4 X 1 X X 2 NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 85KT 55KT 30KT 25KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCA MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 2 22(24) 18(42) 2(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) TUXPAN MX 50 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) TUXPAN MX 64 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 17 63(80) 4(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) VERACRUZ MX 50 1 33(34) 6(40) 1(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) VERACRUZ MX 64 X 17(17) 6(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) FRONTERA MX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN