000 FONT13 KNHC 150243 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM KARL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010 0300 UTC WED SEP 15 2010 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 12 16 14 21 41 NA TROP DEPRESSION 15 51 36 11 16 26 NA TROPICAL STORM 81 36 45 58 39 23 NA HURRICANE 4 2 4 17 25 10 NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 4 2 3 13 17 6 NA HUR CAT 2 X X X 3 5 3 NA HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 2 1 NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50KT 30KT 35KT 50KT 65KT 25KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16) X(16) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 11(26) X(26) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 10(33) X(33) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 8(30) X(30) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) X(16) VERACRUZ MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VERACRUZ MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) COZUMEL MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN