000 FONT13 KNHC 221459 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010 1500 UTC THU JUL 22 2010 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 4 7 9 12 31 48 TROP DEPRESSION 42 28 28 28 24 32 31 TROPICAL STORM 55 64 60 53 49 33 18 HURRICANE 1 5 6 10 15 4 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 1 4 4 8 12 4 2 HUR CAT 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 X HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 40KT 40KT 45KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) W PALM BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MIAMI FL 34 X 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) MARATHON FL 34 X 14(14) 24(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) MARATHON FL 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X 9( 9) 26(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) 1(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) 1(18) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) X(19) STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 4(27) 1(28) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 3(34) X(34) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 287N 884W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) 2(29) X(29) GFMX 287N 884W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) GFMX 287N 884W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 1(24) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 7(34) 1(35) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 2(24) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) 1(28) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 4(12) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 3(25) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 3(22) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 3(18) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 3(19) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 3(18) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 4 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GREAT EXUMA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMAGUEY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA